Public companies today are operating in what Mark Hayes, Founder and Partner of Breakwater Capital Markets, calls the “Era of Continuous Dynamism”. This is a period defined not by episodic shocks, but by persistent, systemic change across economic, geopolitical, technological, and regulatory dimensions. In this environment, traditional assumptions about stability, valuation, and communication no longer hold; leaders must adapt to a world where transformation is constant, and the future is a spectrum of evolving scenarios.
In this article, Mark lays the groundwork for understanding the structural shifts reshaping capital markets and then we dive into a candid Q&A with him on how Breakwater Capital Markets is responding with EVEREST, a next-generation investor day platform designed to close the conviction gap and deliver decision-grade insights for today’s market realities.
The Operating Environment Public Companies Face Today
We have entered what I describe as the Era of Continuous Dynamism. It is an environment where economic regimes, geopolitical realities, technology cycles, regulatory frameworks, and capital markets behavior are all shifting simultaneously and persistently. Unlike prior periods where volatility appeared in waves followed by stabilization, today’s world is structurally dynamic. There is no longer a stable baseline to which conditions reliably return.
Change is embedded in the system itself. It compounds over time and often unfolds in non-linear ways, where small developments can trigger major inflection points. For public companies, this represents a permanent transformation of the operating environment. Strategy can no longer be built around static assumptions, valuation can no longer rely on smooth projections, and communication must evolve to reflect a world in constant motion.
Fundamental Differences from Past Periods of Uncertainty or Disruption
Historically, periods of disruption were typically episodic. There would be a recession, a financial crisis, a technological shift, or a geopolitical event that created volatility, but the broader economic and market structure remained relatively stable. Once the shock passed, companies and investors could recalibrate and return to more predictable patterns of growth and valuation.
In contrast, today’s uncertainty is systemic and continuous. Multiple forces are shifting at the same time, and they are deeply interconnected. Monetary policy regimes are changing alongside geopolitical realignments. Technological innovation is compressing industry lifecycles. Regulatory frameworks are diverging across regions. Capital flows are becoming more sensitive to risk and sentiment. These forces reinforce one another, creating feedback loops that drive constant motion rather than temporary disruption.
Continuous Dynamism Reshapes Leaderships Basic Assumptions of the Future
In a continuously dynamic environment, the assumption that the future will resemble a refined version of the past becomes increasingly unreliable. For decades, strategy and valuation were built around extrapolating historical trends and adjusting for known cycles. That approach relied on the stability of underlying systems.
Today, those systems are themselves evolving. Competitive structures can shift rapidly as technology reshapes industries. Economic conditions can pivot quickly as policy regimes change. Geopolitical developments can alter supply chains and cost structures almost overnight. The future is no longer a single trajectory but a range of evolving possibilities, forcing leaders to replace linear planning with multi-scenario preparedness.
Structural Transformation, Not Heightened Volatility
Volatility implies deviation around a stable center, where markets and economies eventually return to equilibrium. Structural transformation suggests that the equilibrium itself has changed.
What we are experiencing today is not simply larger swings in markets or sharper economic cycles. It is a reconfiguration of how economic systems behave. Regime shifts are occurring more frequently. Innovation cycles are accelerating and overlapping. Global interdependencies are deeper yet more fragile. These changes mean the operating environment no longer settles into predictable patterns. Motion is not an exception to stability. It is the new permanent condition.
Structural Dynamism Changes How Companies Create Value
In more stable environments, companies could optimize business models around efficiency, scale, and incremental growth within relatively predictable market conditions. Those models performed exceptionally well when assumptions held.
In a continuously dynamic world, that same optimization can become vulnerability. A business finely tuned for one set of conditions may struggle dramatically when regimes shift. Value creation now depends on resilience, flexibility, and the ability to reconfigure resources as environments evolve. Companies must design models that withstand macro shocks, competitive inflection points, and regulatory change while continuing to generate durable cash flows.
EVEREST: Breakwater Capital Markets’ Next-gen Investor Day Platform
What motivated Breakwater to launch EVEREST now?
Hayes: We’re seeing a structural breakdown in the traditional Capital Markets Day (CMD) model. More than 52% of institutional investors are dissatisfied with today’s CMDs because they no longer provide valuation-ready insights, credible risk framing, or meaningful differentiation. EVEREST was built to close that conviction gap by delivering decision-grade content aligned with how the buy-side now underwrites value.
What specifically is broken about legacy CMDs?
Hayes: They were designed for a linear, stable environment. Today’s world is nonlinear defined by regime shifts, macro volatility, geopolitical risk, and accelerating innovation cycles. Legacy CMDs rely on recycled narratives, shallow disclosure, and promotional storytelling, which investors increasingly penalize through valuation drag.
How is investor dissatisfaction translating into real valuation impact?
Hayes: When content, communication, and engagement fail to address key investor concerns, like resilience, macro sensitivity, and execution credibility, we consistently see valuation discounts ranging from 8% to as high as 30%. This reflects lower confidence, slower re-engagement, and higher perceived risk premiums.
What makes EVEREST fundamentally different from a traditional CMD?
Hayes: EVEREST is a bespoke, high-impact platform built around valuation logic rather than presentation volume. It integrates granular financial inputs, scenario sensitivities, downside analysis, strategic tradeoffs, and execution-linked KPIs—so investors can directly plug content into their models and assess durability across multiple futures.
You often talk about “valuation-ready disclosures.” What does that mean in practice?
Hayes: It means moving beyond high-level targets to provide ROIC frameworks, capital allocation return curves, macro sensitivities, valuation bridges, and transparent assumptions. Investors want to understand how strategy converts into cash flow and resilient intrinsic value not just hear aspirational growth stories.
How are investor expectations evolving in today’s macro environment?
Hayes: Investors are recalibrating for volatility. They’re explicitly underwriting downside protection, scenario resilience, geopolitical exposure, and adaptability. Growth alone isn’t enough. Credibility, foresight, and proof of execution now carry a valuation premium.
What role does risk framing play in modern valuation?
Hayes: Risk is no longer just a disclosure exercise; it’s a strategic asset. Leading companies translate uncertainty into structured downside behavior, scenario outcomes, and resilience strategies. When investors can price risk clearly, equity risk premiums compress and valuation becomes more durable.
You’ve introduced the concept of “Valuation Elasticity Architecture.” Can you explain it?
Hayes: It’s the ability to show how value expands, holds, and adapts across multiple futures. Companies that demonstrate volatility fluency, valuation coherence, and adaptive capacity earn premium multiples because investors can see how strategy performs under different regimes—not just the base case.
Why are recycled narratives so damaging today?
Hayes: Because repetition without new insight signals a lack of foresight. Investors are dealing with exponential change, AI, geopolitics, inflation regimes, regulatory shifts, etc. When companies show the same slides year after year, it undermines credibility and increases perceived strategic risk.
How does EVEREST link strategy directly to valuation?
Hayes: We architect every engagement around a clear chain: strategy to economics to free cash flow to intrinsic value. That includes unit economics, capital allocation logic, ROIC decomposition, and scenario-based valuation outcomes so the narrative is mathematically defensible.
What are investors most demanding from next-generation Investor Days?
Hayes: Transparency, foresight, access, and coherence. They want unfiltered insights into unit economics, capital allocation discipline, competitive advantage, and how leadership makes decisions under uncertainty. Polished production without substance no longer moves conviction.
How is the role of the Investor Relations Officer changing?
Hayes: The IRO is becoming the architect of trust and valuation resilience integrating real-time narrative orchestration, scenario modeling, investor intelligence, and adaptive communication. It’s a shift from messaging to strategic leadership in capital markets engagement.
What are the biggest macro forces reshaping valuation models today?
Hayes: Geopolitics, AI-driven disruption, inflation and rate volatility, regulatory divergence, energy transitions, and systemic tail risks. These forces are increasingly interdependent, which is why linear forecasts no longer work.
How does EVEREST handle scenario planning differently?
Hayes: We don’t treat scenarios as hypothetical exercises. We build probability-weighted futures tied directly to capital allocation, margins, cash flow resilience, and valuation outcomes so investors can see what’s priced in and what optionality exists.
Why is execution credibility so critical to valuation today?
Hayes: There’s often a widening gap between aspiration and delivery. Investors now reward companies that show learning velocity, proof of course correction, disciplined capital rotation, and measurable progress against milestones. Execution is a valuation driver, not a footnote.
What does “decision-grade content” actually look like?
Hayes: It is content designed for underwriting, not marketing. That means machine-readable data, KPI architectures, downside stress tests, macro sensitivities, and transparent assumptions that plug directly into investor valuation frameworks.
How does EVEREST improve long-term investor conviction?
Hayes: By narrowing the conviction gap. When investors understand the economic engine, risk architecture, and adaptability of a business across cycles, they assign higher confidence-adjusted multiples and maintain ownership through volatility.
Why limit EVEREST engagements to only 15 clients per year?
Hayes: Because this level of rigor requires bespoke design, senior leadership involvement, and enterprise-grade execution. It’s not a template. It’s a strategic rebuild of how companies communicate value to the market.
What happens to companies that don’t evolve their Investor Day approach?
Hayes: They increasingly face valuation drag, often 6% to 25%, as investors apply higher risk premiums, discount long-term targets, and reduce engagement. In today’s environment, outdated communication has become a structural liability.
In one sentence, what is the future of Capital Markets Days?
Hayes: The future is valuation-focused, scenario-driven, execution-linked, and built to make a company’s strategy, resilience, and value creation logic visible, credible, and defensible across multiple futures.
Learn more about EVEREST here.
Contact us at Breakwatercapitalmarkets@breakwaterstrategy.com