Scenario Thinking Redux: Revisiting Our Scenarios for the COVID-19 Future

COVID-19
Internal
The Pilot

By Steve Weber and Arik Ben-Zvi

In late April and early May 2020, a little more than a month into the acute phase of the U.S. pandemic, we sketched out four simple scenarios designed to capture critical uncertainties about how the pandemic would impact American society and politics over the following year. Nearly a year later, we take a look back and outline what we foresaw, what we missed, what we learned, and what we think may happen next.

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